國際貨代海運(yùn)公司談航運(yùn)價格上漲的五大原因

　　當(dāng)前，天津貨代公司稱航運(yùn)成本大幅上漲，激烈的海運(yùn)能力競爭成為新常態(tài)。由于新運(yùn)力僅緩慢投產(chǎn)，預(yù)計今年運(yùn)價將繼續(xù)創(chuàng)下新高，并在長期內(nèi)保持在疫情前的水平之上。

　　Currently,shipping costs are rising sharply and intense competition for ocean freight capacity is the new normal.With new capacity only slowly coming on stream,shipping rates are expected to continue to hit new highs this year and remain above pre-epidemic levels in the long term.

　　短期無緩解

　　No short-term relief

　　自2020年秋季以來，海運(yùn)成本一直在強(qiáng)勁增長，但今年頭幾個月，主要貿(mào)易路線上不同運(yùn)價（干散貨、集裝箱）的價格出現(xiàn)了新的上漲。與去年相比，幾條貿(mào)易航線的價格上漲了兩倍，集裝箱船的租船價格也出現(xiàn)了類似的上漲。

　　Ocean freight costs have been growing strongly since the fall of 2020,but the first months of this year have seen new price increases on the major trade routes at different rates(dry bulk,container).Several trade routes have seen prices triple compared to last year,and container vessels have seen similar increases in charter rates.

　　短期內(nèi)幾乎沒有緩解的跡象，由于全球需求的增長將繼續(xù)滿足運(yùn)力增長有限以及當(dāng)?shù)胤怄i的破壞性影響，今年下半年運(yùn)價可能會繼續(xù)飆升。即使有新的運(yùn)力到達(dá)，集裝箱班輪公司也可能會繼續(xù)更加積極地管理運(yùn)力，從而將運(yùn)費(fèi)保持在比新冠病毒大流行之前更高的水平。

　　There is little sign of relief in the short term and rates are likely to continue to soar later this year as global demand growth will continue to meet limited capacity growth and the damaging effects of local blockades.Even with new capacity arrivals,container liner companies are likely to continue to manage capacity more aggressively,thereby keeping freight rates higher than they were prior to the new coronavirus pandemic.

　　1、持續(xù)的全球失衡進(jìn)一步推高價格

　　1-Continuing global imbalances further push up prices

　　從新冠病毒大流行開始就積累起來的問題包括貨物生產(chǎn)和需求不平衡，各國封鎖和開放時間不同，以及航運(yùn)公司削減主要航線的運(yùn)力和空箱短缺。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的推進(jìn)，全球需求強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，尤其是與國際貨物貿(mào)易關(guān)系最密切的部門。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步開放和供應(yīng)鏈多個環(huán)節(jié)的庫存重建，對海運(yùn)能力的競爭加劇。

　　Problems that have built up since the beginning of the New Coronavirus pandemic include imbalances in cargo production and demand,differing blockades and opening times across countries,and capacity cuts and shortages of empty containers by shipping lines on major routes.As the economic recovery advances,global demand is recovering strongly,especially in the sectors most closely associated with international cargo trade.Competition for ocean freight capacity intensifies as the economy opens up further and inventories are rebuilt at multiple points in the supply chain.

　　2、海運(yùn)的替代方案少

　　2-Few alternatives to maritime transport

　　缺乏海運(yùn)替代品意味著目前很難避免海運(yùn)成本飆升。對于價值更高的產(chǎn)品，通常可以選擇其他運(yùn)輸方式，例如通過航空或火車運(yùn)輸電子設(shè)備，尤其是通過“絲綢之路”。但目前產(chǎn)能有限，關(guān)稅也飆升。家庭用品、玩具、促銷品或T恤等低價值產(chǎn)品的托運(yùn)人的運(yùn)費(fèi)成本從其采購成本的5%左右增加到20%以上。

　　The lack of sea freight alternatives means that it is currently difficult to avoid soaring sea freight costs.For higher value products,there are often alternatives to shipping,such as shipping electronic equipment by air or train,especially via the Silk Road.But capacity is currently limited and tariffs have soared.Shippers of low-value products such as housewares,toys,promotional items or T-shirts have seen freight costs increase from about 5%to over 20%of their purchase cost.

　　難以消化這種規(guī)模的利潤增長，這意味著消費(fèi)者可能會開始感受到價格上漲或產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)變化帶來的影響。

　　The difficulty of absorbing profit increases of this magnitude means that consumers may begin to feel the impact of higher prices or changes in product availability.

　　3、整個2021年的不平衡復(fù)蘇

　　3-Uneven recovery throughout 2021

　　貨物貿(mào)易將進(jìn)一步增長，不僅主要貿(mào)易國，而且其貿(mào)易伙伴也將繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇。隨著對海運(yùn)能力的競爭將繼續(xù)存在，不平衡的復(fù)蘇將繼續(xù)加劇世界貿(mào)易的一些問題，包括空箱轉(zhuǎn)移。這一切都在短期內(nèi)增加了運(yùn)費(fèi)的壓力。

　　Trade in goods will grow further,and recovery will continue not only for the major trading nations but also for their trading partners.With competition for maritime capacity set to continue,the uneven recovery will continue to exacerbate some of the problems of world trade,including the shifting of empty containers.All of this adds to the pressure on freight rates in the short term.

　　4、船舶空白航行縮緊運(yùn)力

　　4-Vessel gap sailing tightens capacity

　　在全球范圍內(nèi)，主要航線的運(yùn)力已恢復(fù)到2020年主要封鎖之前的水平，盡管空白航行（取消的港口停靠）在第一季度繼續(xù)削減了預(yù)定運(yùn)力的10%。本季度有改善的跡象，按照目前的計劃平均為4%。但取消部分是對延誤的回應(yīng)，因此雖然系統(tǒng)仍然擁擠，但運(yùn)輸能力可能會在短時間內(nèi)繼續(xù)從系統(tǒng)中取出。

　　Globally,capacity on major routes has returned to pre-2020 major blockade levels,although blanket voyages(cancelled port calls)continued to cut 10%of scheduled capacity in the first quarter.There were signs of improvement during the quarter,averaging 4%as currently scheduled.However,the cancellations are partly in response to delays,so while the system remains congested,capacity is likely to continue to be taken out of the system for a short period of time.

　　5、港口擁堵和關(guān)閉不斷

　　5-Port congestion and closures continue

　　正如取消航班和延誤之間的聯(lián)系所表明的那樣，擁堵是問題的一部分。2021年的航運(yùn)表現(xiàn)延續(xù)了2020年的表現(xiàn)，因為船舶準(zhǔn)時率降低，船舶到港平均延誤率上升。有一些跡象表明，隨著準(zhǔn)時到達(dá)目的地的船舶比例在4月份停止下滑，平均延誤情況有所改善，平均績效將開始改善，但整體表現(xiàn)仍然是十年來的最低記錄。

　　As the link between cancellations and delays suggests,congestion is part of the problem.2021 shipping performance continues from 2020,as ship on-time performance decreases and average ship arrival delays increase.There are some indications that average performance will begin to improve as the proportion of ships arriving on time at their destination stops declining in April and average delays improve,but overall performance remains the lowest recorded in a decade.

　　準(zhǔn)時到達(dá)的船舶比例

　　Proportion of ships arriving on time

　　與此同時，新冠病毒大流行仍在導(dǎo)致中斷，例如中國鹽田集裝箱港——世界第四大集裝箱港口——在6月初突然關(guān)閉。即使運(yùn)營已經(jīng)恢復(fù)，擁堵和持續(xù)需要采取措施阻止Covid-19的傳播意味著延誤繼續(xù)增加。盡管中國和其他主要貿(mào)易國家在疫苗接種計劃方面取得了進(jìn)展，但產(chǎn)生免疫力需要時間，因此在未來幾個月內(nèi)，處理中斷仍將是一個風(fēng)險。

　　Meanwhile,the New Coronavirus pandemic is still causing disruptions,such as the abrupt closure of China's Yantian Container Port-the world's fourth largest container port-in early June.Even though operations have resumed,congestion and the ongoing need to take measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 mean that delays continue to increase.Despite progress in vaccination programs in China and other major trading countries,it will take time to develop immunity,so handling disruptions will remain a risk for months to come.

　　大量新集裝箱運(yùn)力將緩解價格壓力，但不會在2023年之前

　　Significant new container capacity will ease price pressure,but not before 2023

　　集裝箱班輪在疫情期間取得了出色的財務(wù)業(yè)績，在2021年前5個月，集裝箱船的新訂單達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的229艘，總貨運(yùn)能力為220萬標(biāo)準(zhǔn)箱。到2023年，當(dāng)新運(yùn)力準(zhǔn)備好投入使用時，經(jīng)過多年的低交付量后，它將增加6%，預(yù)計舊船的報廢不會抵消這一點。隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長越過復(fù)蘇的追趕階段，即將到來的海運(yùn)運(yùn)力增加將對航運(yùn)成本構(gòu)成下行壓力，但不一定會使運(yùn)費(fèi)恢復(fù)到新冠病毒大流行前的水平，因為集裝箱班輪似乎已經(jīng)學(xué)會了在他們的聯(lián)盟中更好地管理運(yùn)力能力。

　　Container liners have delivered excellent financial results during the epidemic,with a record 229 new orders for container ships in the first five months of 2021,for a total cargo capacity of 2.2 million TEUs.By 2023,when new capacity is ready to enter service,it will have increased by 6%after years of low deliveries,which is not expected to be offset by the scrapping of older vessels.As global growth crosses the catch-up phase of the recovery,the upcoming increase in ocean freight capacity will put downward pressure on shipping costs,but will not necessarily return freight rates to pre-new coronavirus pandemic levels,as container liners appear to have learned to better manage capacity capacity in their alliances.

　　在短期內(nèi)，由于需求的進(jìn)一步增加和擁擠的系統(tǒng)的限制，運(yùn)價可能會創(chuàng)下新高。即使運(yùn)力限制得到緩解，運(yùn)費(fèi)也可能保持在比新冠病毒大流行之前更高的水平上。

　　In the near term,freight rates could reach new highs due to further increases in demand and the constraints of a congested system.Even if capacity constraints are eased,freight rates are likely to remain at higher levels than before the new